The Afghan market looks set to have reached 10m customers by the end of Q2 09, having finished Q1 with 9.29m. Quarterly net additions stood at an all-time record of 1.33m, more than double the 0.58m recorded in Q1 08. Annual net additions also a hit a record high of 3.89m. On a proportionate basis, annual growth stood at just under 72.0%, down from 95.9% in the prior twelve-month period. However, this was higher than the 66.7% and 65.1% recorded in Q3 08 and Q4 08 respectively, and it could therefore herald a resurgence in growth, which has fallen steeply since reaching a high of 139.8% in Q3 07.
There is still plenty of potential for future growth with penetration only at 27.8%, although there is likely to be a slowdown well before 100% given the country's low level of economic development.
Having regained its leadership of the market in Q3 08, Roshan has performed well and consolidated its advantage. In Q4 08 it scored a market record for quarterly net additions with a boost of 0.41m, and in Q1 09 it topped this with a gain of 0.56m. This took its total customer base past the 3m mark, with an end-quarter base of 3.31m. Second-placed Afghan Wireless ended the quarter with 2.92m, and it managed consecutive personal bests in Q4 08 and Q1 09 with gains of 0.34m and 0.38m respectively. Nonetheless, it has consistently lagged behind Roshan, and on an annual basis its net additions were more than 0.5m lower with a figure of 0.98m, compared to just under 1.50m for Roshan.
Third-placed MTN ended the quarter with 2.36m, having added 0.25m in Q1. This was slightly below the 0.26m gain recorded in Q1 09, and its annual increase was also down from 1.11m to 0.90m. It is the only Afghan operator to report ARPU, and it saw a drop of USD2 to a quarterly average of USD5 per month in Q1 09, although this may be in part due to currency fluctuations. The fourth operator in Afghanistan is Etisalat, which ended the quarter with 0.64m customers having added 0.14m. Finally, Afghan Telecom, which launch mobile services in Q4 08, reached 57.3k customers at the end of the quarter.
Posted to the site on 29th June 2009
Afghanistan: Annual Customer Growth
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