The International Trade Commission's (ITC's) decision to ban U.S. imports of some mobile phones that include certain Qualcomm 3G chips will have only a limited impact on the global wireless communications industry in the short term, according to iSuppli.
If upheld, the ban will impact an estimated 4.2 million shipments of EV-DO and WCDMA mobile phones in 2007, according to Tina Teng, analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli.
This will represent only 4.4 percent of North American mobile-phone shipments in the second half of the year and just 3.2 percent of worldwide 3G mobile-phone shipments during the period. Teng said that only 11 mobile-phone models would be impacted by the ban in 2007, representing 0.9 percent of new phone model introductions for the year, citing data from iSuppli's Design Forecast Tool.
The ban will impact certain mobile-phone OEMs to a greater extent than the industry as a whole, due to their sales of phones with the barred Qualcomm chips into the U.S. market. The OEMs that will be most impacted - in order of degree - are number-three mobile-phone maker Samsung Electronics, fifth-ranked LG Electronics and second-placed Motorola.
However, iSuppli does not expect that the ban will reduce volume shipments of mobile phones in the overall mobile-phone industry this year.
Carriers will continue to promote their data centric 3G services to subscribers, but will have to offer existing 3G handset models to their subscribers.
"The effect of the ban will not be reduced shipments - but rather lower Average Selling Prices (ASPs), as wireless carriers are forced to push aging models that have lower price points, rather than more expensive latest-model EV-DO and WCDMA mobile phones," said Jagdish Rebello, director and principal analyst, consumer electronics/India research/wireless communications, for iSuppli.
Qualcomm has pledged to fight the ban, and has said it will ask the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals to stay enforcement of the ITC's order. The company also said it will appeal to President Bush to veto the ITC's decision.
Beyond Qualcomm itself, the ban will most impact suppliers of other semiconductors used in such advanced phones, including makers of radio frequency and power-amplifier chips. These suppliers include TriQuint Semiconductor, RF Micro Devices and Anadigics. However, the effect on these companies could be limited to ASP reductions for their chip offerings.
One product that could be impacted by the ban is Apple's iPhone, which soon will be offered to consumers in the United States. Some of the advanced mobile phones impacted by the ITC ban were expected to compete directly with iPhone. This could create challenges for carriers planning to offer these phones, while boosting the outlook for AT&T, which will sell the iPhone in the United States."
Posted to the site on 11th June 2007
Posted to: www.cellular-news.com/story/24272.php