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Verizon Wireless Expected to Lead in Generating Mobile Broadband Revenues

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A report is estimating that 74 million Americans will access video via mobile phones in 2015, up from 15m on 2009, while 24m Americans will access video via notebooks and netbooks.

Coda Research Consultancy also says that video traffic will be responsible for the majority of traffic growth, and will form nearly two thirds (63%) of mobile broadband traffic by 2015. This will be mainly short form content, around comedy, music, news clips, and viral videos

Mobile broadband phone penetration will rise to reach 244m in 2015, up from 37% in 2009 - a CAGR of 18%, while smartphone penetration will reach 51% of mobile phones in use by 2015.

Mobile data revenues will be welcome amid stagnating voice revenues. Whilst voice revenues will decline at a CAGR of -1%, revenue from mobile data will increase at a CAGR of 15% over 2009. Two thirds of this will come from mobile broadband. Thanks to mobile broadband, data ARPU will increase by a CAGR of 14% between 2009 and 2015.

Coda Research also forecasts that of all carriers, Verizon will continue to gain highest revenues from data, and these revenues will rise at a CAGR of 18%. T-Mobile will continue to fetch lowest data revenues, although these will rise by a CAGR of 14%. Although achieving lower overall data revenues than AT&T and Verizon, Sprint will continue to gain highest data ARPU

Commenting on the research, Steve Smith, founder of Coda Research Consultancy said, "Clearly, no single device is going to win out. We are looking at an eco-system of devices that people will use according to where they are, who they are with, what they want to do, and device factors such as around screen size. This also means that device manufacturers and operators will have to provide a range of connectivity means. People tend to think that inbuilt modems are the way forward. Certainly we shall see a rise in these, but there will be a great many people who will want to move broadband dongles from one device to another.

"A challenge for carriers and content providers is that only half of people with internet enabled phones actually use them to access the internet. The potential is there, but organizations need to move people from ownership into integrating their devices into their everyday lives. Consumers need to see and understand the value of mobile broadband.

"Smartphones are significant drivers of course, and smartbooks have recently gained some headlines. However, look at people's behavior and you will see little appetite for even smaller netbook type form factors. Rather, we see smartbooks as becoming a sub-category of smartphones. Voice communication is essential.

"Video is going to be significant, despite all the caveats. Also, mobile video users tend to be a very unique audience. Short form content will form the majority of usage in the immediate future, and mobile broadband video will clearly centre upon phones because they are tied to the person. We will see long form content becoming popular, but not until at least 2012. And video is going to put even more pressure on networks, with customer dissatisfaction rising. LTE will of course help to meet demands, and drive mobile broadband device and service take up.

"Along with video, social networking and location based services are the real 'killer-apps'. Not only will these be drivers to take-up, they have great potential as revenue streams but need to be used very creatively to gain brand and service awareness for businesses.

"Mobile banking and mobile payments will work only when consumers see their benefits. Micro-payments will be significant, and smartphones will help drive take-up. More trials like the current Starbucks trials need to take place. Mobile payments will also provide a new revenue channel for brands, such as through coupons. There is a willingness to receive marketing as long as long as consumers feel they benefit."

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Tags: broadband  video  modems  cagr