Russia's Market Penetration Reaches 12.4%
The Russian market research group, J'son & Partners has reported that Russia's subscriber base witnessed significant gains in the past year, growing from 8.04 million at year-end 2001 to 17.8 million at year-end 2002. The overall penetration in Russia more than doubled from 5.6% to 12.4%.
Gross additions in December were 1.15 million new subscribers. Almost 57% of monthly additions were in the regions, with 30% in the Moscow License Area and 13% in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast.
In 2002, MTS and VimpelCom expanded their subscriber base substantially due to aggressive regional buildout; from 0.57 million and 0.2 million at year-end 2001 to 2.62 million and 1.37 million at year-end 2002. MegaFon demonstrated significant improvement in the Moscow License Area and accelerated sales in the Volga, South and Urals. By the end of 2002, MegaFon served 2,955,600 subscribers in Russia, including over 324,000 subscribers in MLA. The share of independent operators shrank significantly from 29% at year-end 2001 to almost 18.9% at year-end 2002.
J&P says that by the end of this year, the total number of mobile subscribers will reach approximately 30 million. This is equivalent to the total number of wireline subscribers in Russia. The number of regional subscribers, including the St. Petersburg License Area, will be twice larger than the Moscow License Area.
J&P predicts that the variance of this forecast could reach 10% (-/+) depending on a number of contributing factors. Continued subscriber growth will hinge on the performance of the Russian economy and rising incomes. The burgeoning middle-class in the two capitals and other large Russian cities will be a driver of growth. If Russian mobile operators promote value-added services with aggressive tariff plans, and regional adoption continues to not slow beyond the Volga, Urals, and Siberia, there is an upside for new subscribers."
Posted to the site on 6th January 2003
