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100G Has Arrived, but Terabit Transport Is Closer Than You Think

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Optical transport has entered the 100G era, but readiness for beyond 100G (B100G) and terabit transport is key to future success in this market, according to a new report from Heavy Reading.

The report says that global revenue from 100G systems was $1.6 billion in 2013 and is forecast to increase to $5.0 billion by 2018, representing a 26.4 percent CAGR during the forecast period. As 100G increases, 10G and 40G revenue will decline rapidly.

In 2013, 100G unseated 10G in capacity shipped, accounting for 47 percent of capacity shipped during the year. In 2018, we forecast that 100G will account for 93 percent of capacity shipped, as 10G and 40G decline to minimal amounts and the 400G ramp-up proceeds slowly.

"Heavy Reading believes that B100G work began at the right time in order to build a solid, standardized technology base and ecosystem for the future," explains Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst with Heavy Reading and author of the report.

"Recent history indicates that B100G will take five years (or more) to move from hero experiments to wide commercialization. Standards on both the client side (led by the IEEE) and the line side (led by the ITU-T) are still very much a work in progress, and standards and technologies need time to develop and mature."

We believe that B100G uptake will follow a measured pattern, with widespread commercial adoption occurring beyond the five-year time horizon of our current forecast, Perrin notes. "Still, work on B100G will - and should - continue in order to make B100G the most economical option for backbone network transport. When the cost per bit for B100G becomes lower than for 100G transport, B100G will begin to move into the mainstream as the replacement for 100G."

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