Tablet PC Shipment Forecast Lowered Through 2017, but Double-Digit Growth Still Expected
The forecast for global tablet PC shipments has been lowered as short-term build plans are being reduced. According to NPD DisplaySearch, tablet shipments are still expected to be up 30 percent year-over-year, but projections between 2013 and 2017) are being scaled back by (roughly 9 percent every year).
The main factor in the forecast reduction is white-box tablet PC production in China, which is being pulled back following overly aggressive build plans that out-paced demand.
Despite the current situation in China, much of the future growth for tablet PC shipments will come from the China and Asia Pacific regions. These regions will make up nearly 50 percent of the worldwide tablet PC segment by 2015, increasing to nearly 60 percent by 2017. In comparison, North America and EMEA, which combined will make up 50 percent of the market in 2013, will fall to 36 percent in 2017.
Overall global tablet PC shipments are expected to reach more than 255 million units in 2013, capturing nearly 60 percent of the mobile PC market. The once-dominant standard notebook PC segment is forecast to fall to 160 million units, making up just 36 percent of the mobile PC market. Shipments of ultra-slim PCs are expected to reach 19 million units, or 4 percent of mobile PCs, according to the NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report.
By 2017, shipments of tablet PCs are forecast to reach 534 million units, or 76 percent of the mobile PC market. Ultra-slim PC shipments are expected to increase slightly to 7 percent of the market, with 50 million units shipped. Meanwhile, standard notebook PC shipments are expected to fall to less than 112 million units, which is just 16 percent of the mobile PC market.
"Tablet PCs are gaining share at the expense of standard notebooks in key emerging regions where PC penetration rates are low," said Richard Shim, senior analyst with NPD DisplaySearch. "Parts of China and Asia Pacific, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are the new battlegrounds for PC shipment growth, and low-cost tablets are compelling alternatives to traditional standard notebooks in those regions."
Declining average selling prices will drive shipment growth of tablets in the China and Asia Pacific regions. ASPs in China and Asia Pacific will fall from $285 in 2013 to less than $240 in 2017 with nearly 50 percent of tablets selling for less than $100.
Major brands will increasingly offer low-priced tablet PCs to better compete against white-box tablet PC makers in the entry-level segments that are currently driving tablet PC adoption worldwide. In the standard notebook segment, declining demand and shipments for standard notebooks has major brands focusing on profits and higher ASPs. ASPs for standard notebooks are expected to reach $699 in 2013, rising to $766 by 2017.