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Over 1.5 Billion Mobile Phones Sold in 2012
Published on:
While global handset makers have yet to release 4Q12 earnings, South Korean analysts, Korea Investment and Securities (KIS) are estimating the quarterly global handset demand at 420 million units, up 11% QoQ, and full-year 2012 demand at 1.53 billion units.
As a result, they expect the global market to shrink for the first time, falling by 1 percent on the previous year. They attribute this to weak economic conditions in the USA, China and Europe, and handset penetration reaching 69%.
However, they estimate 4Q12 global smartphone demand at 186 million units, in line with their earlier forecast, and full-year demand at 652 million units, slightly higher than their earlier forecast.
They also revised up their global smartphone demand outlook by 4% from 780 million units to 810 million units (up 24% YoY), as the transition from feature phones to smartphones accelerates, demand for mobile shopping, payments and banking is growing faster than expected, and China Mobile, the largest global telco, ramps up its smartphone business.
The analysts also revised upwards Samsung's smartphone shipments from 284 million to 295 million units (market share to rise to 36.7% in 2013) on the early launch of the Galaxy S4, reinforced competitiveness in low-end smartphones for emerging markets and new functions for new products. In addition, they raised the outlook for LG's 2013 smartphone shipments from 36 million to 42 million units (M/S to rise to 5.3%) on the early launch of the Optimus G successor, reinforced LTE competitiveness and an improved brand image.
Finally, the analysts believe Apple's iPhone 5 sales are sluggish given recent order cuts at Apple- related component makers. As such, Apple should adopt a multi-platform technology for the first time, and the company should slash iPhone prices. Given these strategic changes, they maintain iPhone shipments at 157 million units in 2013 (M/S unchanged at 19%).
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