Report Forecasts 8.5 Billion Mobile Subscriptions by 2017

Published on: 31st Jul 2012

­There were almost 6 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by the end of 2011, and Portio Research is now forecasting that there will be 6.5 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by the end of 2012. The global subscriber base is growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3 percent between year-end 2011 and 2016, to almost 8.5 billion by the end of 2016.

The top 10 countries fuelling this growth, in absolute numbers, will add 1.8 billion subscribers over the next five years -- equivalent to 72 percent of total subscriber additions during the same period.

They expect that the fastest growth rates will be achieved in Africa and Asia Pacific; with respective projected regional level CAGRs of 9.4 and 9 percent.

China is still the largest market worldwide in terms of mobile subscriber base.

With net additions of 166.9 million mobile subscribers from end-2010 to Q1 2012, India has witnessed the second highest growth in terms of subscriber additions, followed by third-placed Brazil.

In 2011, the Asia Pacific region accounted for 50.1 percent of the worldwide mobile subscriber base, and this will actually increase to 54.3 percent by the end of 2016; similarly, Africa's percentage contribution will increase from 10.8 percent at end-2011 to 11.9 percent at end-2016. Countries from the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa are among the Top 10 emerging markets with high CAGRs; Egypt, Oman and Sudan are the Top 3 fastest growing mobile markets worldwide based on this 2011-2016 metric.

The advanced markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, and growth has slowed to a crawl in many of these markets, some markets in Europe have even seen contraction, particularly during the difficult economic conditions present in many of those markets recently.

Mobile subscribers worldwide are gradually shifting to 3G and higher networks, and users in these segments are forecast to account for around 60 percent of total subscribers by end-2016, compared to 26 percent at end-2011.