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Brazil's Penetration Set to Surpass 80% As Total Market Reaches 140m
Brazilian penetration is racing upwards, with a 14.0pp gain in the twelve months ending 30th September 2008 taking the figure to 73.2%. This compares to an 8.3pp gain in the prior twelve months. At the time of writing, penetration is likely to be approaching 80%, and although it is common for markets to slow down as 100% penetration is neared, a penetration rate in excess of 90% by the end of 2009 is a possibility.
In real terms, there were 140.76m customers at the end of Q3 08. Quarterly net additions stood at 7.61m, the second best figure ever recorded, and this was in large part due to a bumper quarter from Telecom Americas (Claro) which recorded a best-ever gain of 2.55m. Vivo also performed well with a figure of 1.84m, as did Oi with 1.57m. In fact, this was Oi's highest ever figure, excluding the inorganic 2.97m it recorded in Q2 08 as a result of its acquisition of part of Telemig's network.
Oi's acquisition of Brasil Telecom has recently been confirmed, and on a pro forma basis this gives it a customer base of 27.11m at the end of Q3 08. Despite the boost of Brasil Telecom's 5.25m customers, it remains in fourth place at the end of the quarter. TIM Brasil was in third place with 35.21m, having been overtaken by Claro which, as we have seen, posted a company record for net additions. TIM Brasil recorded a figure of 1.39m but this was not enough to prevent Claro regaining the second place it first won in Q2 99, but then lost again in Q1 05. Meanwhile, Vivo continued to lead the way with 42.28m customers and 30.0% market share at the end of the quarter.
The latest monthly figures from Brazilian regulator Anatel show that the total market grew to 147.05m connections at the end of November. Monthly net additions in November stood at 2.26m, while October's 4.01m was the third best monthly gain ever recorded in the market and the best ever outside of December. AMPS, TDMA and CDMA connections continue to decline, with CDMA's proportion falling to 9.2% - the first time it has been below one-tenth since the first few months after launch in the late 90s. W-CDMA connections accounted for 1.3% with a total of 1.94m, while GSM had just under 130m. This is equivalent to 88.4% of the total, up from 78.5% at the end of 2007.
Posted to the site on 14th January 2009
This article was extracted from The Mobile World Briefing, the weekly newsletter from The Mobile World.
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