Pakistan Subscribers - Slowdown Continues As 50% Penetration Approaches

The total number of mobile connections in Pakistan surpassed the 80m mark in Q1 08, finishing the quarter on 82.51m. The penetration rate was exactly 48% at the end of the quarter. Net additions totalled 5.63m in Q1 08, down from 7.16m in Q1 07, and in fact this was the lowest quarterly total since Q1 06.

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Proportionate Quarterly Customer Growth, Q2 00 – Q1 08

In the 12 months to the end of March 2008, the total customer base grew by 48.4%, down from 104.2% in the previous 12 months, while quarterly growth stood at 7.3%, the lowest figure since Q2 00. Clearly growth is stalling somewhat in Pakistan, although on an actual basis the figure for annual net additions was still an impressive 26.91m.

Market leader Mobilink saw its market share fall for the ninth successive quarter, finishing Q1 08 with 38.5%, its lowest share for six years.

However, on an actual basis it widened its lead over its nearest rival U- Fone to 14.56m from 13.04m a year earlier. U-Fone may not have second place for much longer as Telenor is snapping at its heels: from 2.53m at the end of Q1 07, its lead was reduced to 1.57m at the end of the year, and in the latest quarter this was slashed by over a million. At the end of Q1 08, U-Fone was on 17.20m compared to 16.70m for Telenor, and barring a remarkable change of fortunes, Telenor looks set to overtake U- Fone by the end of 2008. Fourth-placed Warid continued to gain market share, finishing Q1 08 up 1.3pp year on year at 17.4%, but having been overtaken by Telenor in Q1 07 it was 2.31m customers adrift on 14.39m at the end of Q1 08.

Meanwhile, Zong (formerly Paktel) broke through the 2m mark in Q1 to finish on 2.14m and Pakcom languished on 0.32m.

In terms of growth, Telenor took top spot for quarterly net additions with 2.11m, its second consecutive 2m + quarter. This helped it to first place on an annual basis with 7.63m, pushing Mobilink into second with 7.12m. U- fone took third with 5.60m and Warid gained 5.44m in the year. Zong was the fastest growing on a proportionate basis with 107.4% annual growth, adding 1.11m in the year. Telenor took second place with 84.1% and Warid was third with 60.7%. U-Fone was just below the market average with 48.3%, while Mobilink was second from last with 28.9% ahead of Pakcom on 3.2%.

Posted to the site on 7th May 2008

This article was extracted from The Mobile World Briefing, the weekly newsletter from The Mobile World.

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