|
|
Nigerian Operator Subscriber Base Slumps Following Recount
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) recently began releasing information on the number of active subscribers in Nigeria, and as a result we have adjusted the figures in The Mobile World Database to give a more accurate depiction of the market. This was a crucial revision, not least because the NCC reported a rapid rise in the inactivity level in the final quarter of the year: from 15.9% at the end of Q3, it reached 26.9% at year-end.
In total, there were 55.24m registered subscribers at the end of 2007, up 70.9% year on year, whereas the total figure for active subscribers rose 41.9% to 40.40m. This represents a penetration rate of 29.6%, up 8.3pp year on year.
Since MTN and Celtel both report active totals for Nigeria, Glo Mobile was the only operator which saw any alteration to its figures as a result of the NCCÃ's new data. It was, however, a sizeable adjustment, indicating that press reports on which we had previously based our estimates were massively inflating the size of GloÃ's subscriber base, perhaps because they were reporting the registered total. Rather than finishing the year as the Nigerian market leader, as previous information suggested, Glo was in fact in second place behind MTN. Indeed, with 11.83m active customers, it was only 0.74m ahead of third-placed Celtel.
MTN finished the year in a dominant position with 16.51m. However, with a 34.4% annual customer growth rate, MTN was the most sluggish of the top three Nigerian operators. Glo recorded a 40.2% annual uplift to customer numbers, although this represented a huge slowdown compared to 2006, when the growth rate reached an extraordinary 174.2%. Celtel was the fastest-growing, and was the only one of the top three to record an increase in growth in 2007, a 26.5pp year-on-year rise taking the rate to 73.5%.
On a quarterly basis, MTN recorded the highest figure for net additions for the third straight Q4, with 1.53m new connections in Q4 07. Celtel took second with 1.22m, while Glo recorded just 0.72m. On an annual basis, Glo was the only one of the top three which did not outdo its 2006 figure for net additions, falling from a market-leading 5.36m to a third-placed 3.39m. MTN improved from 3.91m to 4.23m, while Celtel more than doubled its 2006 total of 2.04m, adding 4.70m new connections in 2007. However, since MTN, Celtel and Glo all took first place for net additions in one quarter or another in 2007, it is difficult to predict any pattern for 2008.
What we can say is that the battle for second place looks set to remain close, and that MTN is unlikely to see its lead overhauled.
Posted to the site on 9th April 2008
This article was extracted from The Mobile World Briefing, the weekly newsletter from The Mobile World.
To download a sample issue of the Briefing in PDF format, please click here.
For more information including full subscription pricing, please visit The Mobile World