WiMAX Subs to Exceed 100 Million by 2014

Research and analysis firm, Maraved is forecasting in a new report that WiMAX subscribers to exceed 100 million by 2014. "WiMAX chipsets will start to be embedded in laptops in the second half of 2008, into handheld devices in 2009, and into consumer electronics by early 2010," said Adlane Fellah, President and CEO of Maravedis and co-author of the report. "This is definitely a key assumption, as large-scale WiMAX deployments by companies such as BSNL and Sprint start to materialize in 2008-2009 despite current challenges."

On the technology side, the report confirms that both WiMAX and LTE are converging upon 4G service capabilities, which include seamless hand-over, Quality of Service (QoS), security, high-level network architecture, user authentication and billing across similar but still incompatible low-level interface networks.

According to Nokia and Ericsson, LTE may enter the market as early as late 2009. However, LTE's primary market, 3G operators, will be unlikely to adopt LTE until 2012-2014. "While LTE appears to have the decisive volume advantage, that lag between 3G evolution and the next generation mobile network will greatly benefit WiMAX," said Robert Syputa, Senior Analyst at Maravedis and co-author of the report. "Furthermore, WiMAX has the ‘Apple Macintosh 1984' marketing advantage, which will definitely have strong appeal to early adopters and those who will rebel against the contrived nature of the cell phone."

Delays in realizing WiMAX Forum Certified products based on IEEE 802.16e-2005 during 2007 didn't slow infrastructure or device manufacturers from introducing both traditional and innovative solutions. "As predicted by Maravedis, more than 100 Mobile WiMAX devices have been announced or made available commercially," said Jeff Orr, Senior Analyst at Maravedis and co-author of the report. "Multi-band, multi-protocol devices along with mobile internet devices, ultra-mobile personal computers, and personal navigation devices with embedded WiMAX will be the first WiMAX Forum Certified devices, expected during 2008."

Highlights of the report include the following:

• The accumulated market size for combined demand and supply of WiMAX equipment will reach $42 billion by 2014.
• There were over 1,650,000 BWA subscribers, including 635,000 WiMAX subscribers, at the end of 2007.
• Motorola was the leader in BWA and WiMAX combined equipment markets, with a 23% market share, followed by Alvarion at 18%.
• CPE shipments totaled US$644 million, while base stations were valued at US$547 million, for a total BWA and WiMAX market of US$1.2 billion in 2007.
• WiMAX Forum Certified (802.16-2004) equipment market size reached US$172 million in 2007.
• Europe and Asia represented the largest BWA and WiMAX market opportunities in 2007.
• Initial 802.16m proof-of-concept systems will appear in early 2010, with certification of commercial systems possibly as early as the first half of 2011.
• Opportunities exist in sub-1 GHz spectrum for both WiMAX and LTE protocols. 700 MHz appears to be a common band of interest in multiple geographies. Sub-1 GHz optimizes WiMAX's ability to compete in range and mobile service capabilities against 3GPP LTE.
• The mobile version of WiMAX (802.16e-2005) is a tipping point for volume efficiencies that hasten the emergence of 802.16m as a 4G unified communications network that will challenge cell phone volume dominance.

Posted to the site on 4th February 2008