Skyrocketing Mobile Subscriber Growth Fueling the RAN Equipment Market

There will be an estimated 2.9 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide by the end of 2007, and that number is expected to climb to over 4 billion by 2010, says Infonetics Research in its latest report. Voice was the driver for 2G mobile based on GSM and CDMA technology; it has been and still is a phenomenal global success. Today, higher speed data, multimedia, video, and mobile TV services are driving forward 3G deployment based on W-CDMA and CDMA2000, which is being upgraded with HSDPA and EV-DO technology to deliver even faster connectivity.

The overall RAN market, which includes GSM, W-CDMA, and CDMA/CDMA2000 base station controllers (BSCs) and base transceiver stations (BTSs), as well as microcells and picocells, experienced a weak first quarter, dropping 6% from the previous quarter to $9.5 billion. Based on mobile subscriber demand, however, non-GSM segments of the market are expected to pick up.

"While demand is high, the intensifying competition in Africa, India, Latin America, and Russia is causing significant price erosion for GSM/EDGE/GPRS equipment. We expect a rebound in the second half of 2007, driven by major CDMA deployments in North America (the Verizon contract will serve Alcatel-Lucent from through mid-2008, for example) , and 3G deployments in China. The main action is in Asia Pacific, which accounts for 42% of all RAN revenue now and will increase its share due to the ramp-up in mobile network spending, in China and India in particular, from 2007 on," said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst at Infonetics Research.

Market Highlights

• Worldwide RAN equipment revenue is expected to reach $36.8 billion in 2010
• Ericsson increased its lead in worldwide RAN, GSM, and W-CDMA revenue share in 1Q07
• Alcatel-Lucent had a down quarter but maintains its #2 position in the overall RAN market, followed closely by Nokia
• Alcatel-Lucent leads 1Q07 CDMA/CDMA2000 revenue share with 39%, followed by Nortel and Motorola

Posted to the site on 7th June 2007