Two-thirds Say zero-chance They Will Buy the IPhone

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Note -- this news article is more than a year old.

There have been many proclamations on how successful the iPhone will be from capturing a huge percentage of the cell phone market to an overpriced product with too many functions. Markitecture has surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1 300 Americans who both owned their own cell phone and were responsible for the monthly payments.

77% of respondents were at least slightly familiar with the iPhone, a respectable number for a product that has yet to launch. Among those familiar with the product, 41% had a good impression of the iPhone based on everything they had seen or heard. Interestingly, familiarity with the iPhone is positively correlated with overall impression - strength of impression increases dramatically with increased exposure - 83% of those very familiar with the iPhone had an excellent or very good impression of the product.

Despite the relatively strong impression overall, when asked their likelihood of buying the iPhone within the next year, trial (assuming 100% awareness and distribution) was just 6%.

In fact, two-thirds said that there was zero chance they would purchase the product. While 6% may appear low for a high-profile product launch, it actually may be very strong for the cell phone market. The highly successful Motorola RAZR after its launch in 2004 achieved a 6% market share at its peak.

As for reasons for not purchasing the iPhone, cost was cited as the top reason; coming in a close second was carrier issues and or contracts, which could potentially be a tough hurdle to overcome.

Is there an opportunity to broaden the line with lower-price options? Could Apple have sacrificed some features in order to lower its price point and significantly increase trial? Did Apple make a mistake with its long exclusivity deal with Cingular/AT&T and depress trial? Only time will tell the direction that the iPhone will take in today's cell phone market.

The full survey can be requested from Markitecture (registration required)."

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