Motorola Most at Threat from iPhone - Survey

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The latest ChangeWave consumer cell phone survey amongst USA based consumers shows the impact the Apple iPhone continues to have on the cellular industry.

Nearly one-in-ten respondents (9%) say they are 'Very' or 'Somewhat Likely' to buy the new iPhone once it becomes available in June. Another 7% of respondents say they are likely to buy the iPhone as a gift for someone else.

The iPhone's looming impact on cell phone manufacturers becomes clear when you compare current market share with planned purchases for the next six months.

Currently, Motorola (33%) is the leading manufacturer among the cell phone owners surveyed - with LG (15%) second and Nokia (14%) third. However, when we focus on planned future buying, the startling impact of the iPhone becomes apparent:

For the second consecutive survey, Motorola's future share among consumers has registered a dramatic decline - falling from 33% in October 2006 to just 17% currently.

"As more and more consumers switch to the iPhone, we are going to see a huge migration from cell phone manufacturers like Motorola to the hipper, cooler iPhone," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing. "And, because of Apple's deal with AT&T's Cingular as their exclusive service provider for the iPhone, we are also going to see a big migration away from Verizon and other cellular providers."

Speaking of service providers, the current survey shows Verizon (30%) holding the market share lead among respondents. Second place Cingular (27%) - Apple's exclusive service provider for the United States - has gained 1-point on Verizon since the previous survey in January, while Sprint/Nextel (12%) has dropped 1-point to a new low.

But in terms of momentum going forward we find a dramatic turn of events. Cingular (28%; up 6-points) has surged ahead of Verizon in terms of future planned buying, and is now the top choice among those likely to switch service providers.

The survey also uncovered an additional surge in demand for the iPhone if the proposed price point of the device is lowered.

How far would the price have to drop to turn those who are not considering the iPhone into potential buyers? Another 10% say they'd consider buying a 4GB iPhone if the price falls to the $200-$299 range, while 20% said they'd consider the 8GB model in this price range.

These results are nearly identical to ChangeWave's previous consumer cell phone survey conducted in January, and provide strong evidence that Apple should exceed its iPhone sales goals for 2008 - provided the device lives up to consumer expectations."

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Tags: at&t  cingular  apple iphone 

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