2007 Handset Sales Growth Forecast Raised

Merrill Lynch has raised its forecast for 2007 global handset unit growth forecast from 10% to 13% with units up from 1067 million to 1106 million. Looking further ahead, 2008 unit growth is up from 4% to 8% with units up to 1196 million. They are also increasing unit estimates by 39 million in 2007, 86 million in 2008 and 111 million in 2009.

The majority of the increase in 2007 (37mn) is coming from handsets purchased by new subscribers but in later years 2008-10 the increase in their forecasts is dominated by replacement units since the mobile subscriber base is now higher.

Higher mobile subscriber penetration in their group of 8 emerging countries (E-8) that include India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Egypt is the principal driver behind the higher handset shipment numbers. Merrill Lynch expects that net additions in the E-8 will peak in 2007 at 241 million subscribers and the E-8 will account for 40% of global subscribers in 2010 - 1.6 billion of 3.9billion global subscriber base.

Finally, they expect a seasonal pattern for 2007 very similar to 2006, with 46:54 as the 1H:2H split. They model Q1 at 244 million (-16%), Q2 at 260 million (+6.6%), Q3 at 275 million (+5.7%), and Q4 at 328 million (+19.5%)."

Posted to the site on 5th February 2007