Overview of Chinese 3G Licence Opportunities

China's pending 3G license auction continues to hold the mobile community in suspense. The new Pyramid Research report stipulates that the infrastructure opportunity will be some US$9 billion for vendors in the 2006-2009 period with 2007 alone generating approximately US$4 billion, based on data from Pyramid Research forecasts.

Additionally, 3G subscribers are expected to account for 15% of China's mobile market by 2010.

Regarding the 3G auction, Pyramid Research expects three nationwide 3G licenses to be awarded with one going to a fixed operator. An interesting scenario discussed in the report assesses the possibility of China Telecom and China Netcom consolidating and offering a nationwide 3G solution. Another scenario examines the possibility of dissolving China Unicom and dispersing its GSM subscriber base to China Telecom and the CDMA network to China Netcom - making way for both a TD-SCDMA and CDMA2000 operator.

Supporting these scenarios was transfer of two top executives from China Mobile and China Unicom to fixed line operator China Telecom signaling that mobile will become a key component in the latter's strategy.

Adding to the importance of the 3G auction will be the future of China's 3G technology TD-SCDMA. The Chinese government would like to eliminate its dependence on Qualcomm, prop-up domestic vendors like Huawei and ZTE, and in the process bolster China's manufacturing industry. Additionally, if TD-SCDMA is a success, China would be able to export the equipment to developing countries as a cheaper alternative to WCDMA."

Posted to the site on 28th July 2005