African Mobile Subscribers Could Top 140 Million in 5 Years

According to Africa's ICT market analysts, BMI-TechKnowledge, the combined fixed and mobile capex for the entire continent is expected to reach US$61 billion for the period 2000 - 2009. The findings were recently published in the company's latest pan-African telecommunications research entitled the Africa Telecoms Infrastructure Market 2005-2009.

Daniel Padiachy, telecoms analyst and co-author of the report says that due to the relatively new or "fresh" nature of the telecoms markets across Africa , most new investment is expected to go into transmission and access components of the networks.

"However, looking forward we expect to see a significant shift of investment towards the OSS/BSS/NSS element of the network as the networks mature and operators begin to rollout more sophisticated services to their subscribers."

The report also highlights that the combined mobile and fixed line subscriber base in Africa had risen to just under 100 million, with 68% being mobile by the end of 2004 with projections that mobile subscribers could easily reach 140 million in the next five years.

"The rapid growth in subscribers is expected to translate into a wide opportunity for infrastructure and equipment vendors as operators, both mobile and fixed, attempt to satisfy the demand. This forecast is considerably larger than previous projections, reflecting the global phenomenon of lowering affordability barriers even further, within the pre-paid model, and the net positive economic impact on the individual subscriber of owning a phone." adds Padiachy.

BMI-T anticipates that network operators will increasingly base their investment and pricing decisions on long-range incremental costing principles, as their fully depreciated asset bases are leveraged into the future.

"This implies that, post 2009, the market could grow even further, based on measures to improve affordability levels, with a gross subscriber base of between 180 to 200 million being regarded as reasonable," concludes Padiachy.

African mobile subscriber growth, millions 2004-2009

Source: BMI-TechKnowledge, 2005"

Posted to the site on 4th May 2005